Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 22nd

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of seven relevant economic reports for the markets to digest. All of the week’s data is being posted over just three days, so the first part of the week should be interesting for mortgage shoppers.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted late tomorrow morning. This report, along with Wednesday’s New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results. They both are expected to show increases in sales, indicating that the housing sector may be strengthening.

The first important data comes early Tuesday morning when the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of expansion. Curre nt forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.9%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a smaller than expected reading for this report to improve mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released by the Conference Board late Tuesday morning. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see little change from last month’s 47.7 reading, meaning consumer were just as concerned about their own financial situations as they were last month. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

There are four reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items, but is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.2% and that spending increases 0.5%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to the preliminary reading of 66.0. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

October’s New Home Sales is the last report, but it is the least important. I don’t think this data will influence mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the rest of the day’s news matches forecasts.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close Wednesday ahead of the holiday, but they will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home. Banks have to be open Friday , but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market, particularly the first half. Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. I expect to see plenty of movement in rates the first couple of days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other b orrowers.

Last Week in Review

"THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS…" Or so the famous saying goes. And when it comes to really understanding the various reports and events unfolding in the economy, it’s important to take a look at the details – not just the headlines. Here’s what you need to know.

On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, unexpectedly fell due to a drop in energy prices. While that seems like good news on the surface, keep in mind that next month’s number could climb higher again, as oil and natural gas have both been on a tear higher lately.

In housing news, Housing Starts and Building Permits both came in a bit below expectations, but this may be a sign that builders are exercising some caution – particularly in the face of the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers that is presently set to expire on November 30th. Existing Home Sales came in better than expected – and a whopping 45% of those homes were sold to first time homebuyers – rushing to move in on that credit. Recent studies have shown that many who qualify for this tax credit aren’t even aware of it…so please let me know if you or someone you know needs more information – the clock is ticking!

Additionally, the level of existing homes inventory shrunk to a 7.8 month supply, down from a recent high of 10.1 months in April.

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Chart: Existing Home Sales (Supply in Months)

In other news, 3rd quarter earnings season continues, where companies report their status as of the end of September. While many companies are beating expectations, it’s important to realize that many of those companies achieved better earnings by cost cutting and layoffs, not from increased sales. This is a big disconnect between Wall Street and "Main Street". Stocks are rocketing higher based on these "positive" reports, but the cost cutting and job cutting measures can only go so far…you can’t simultaneously grow the ranks of unemployment – and then grow your business, hoping for increased sales to those same people who are without jobs.

Last week’s Jobless Claims numbers seem to confirm this as Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected. In addition, the number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since March, but this is likely the result of people’s unemployment benefits expiring, without them having been able to find jobs.

Also worth noting is the news that ratings agency Moody’s lead analyst, Steven Hess, said that the US needs to cut its deficit or it could lose its "AAA" rating in the next 3 to 4 years, which we have maintained since 1917! Think of all we’ve been through – two World Wars, the Depression, three Wall Street collapses and major terrorist attacks…yet our credit quality has maintained that AAA rating, allowing us to issue debt at the most favorable rates. Hess went on to say that if the US doesn’t "get the deficit down in the next 3-4 years to a sustainable level, then the rating will be in jeopardy." And just like on a mortgage when the credit rating gets reduced, interest rates move higher. This will definitely be something we’ll keep an eye on in the months ahead.

After all the week’s action, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week slightly worse than where they began.

AS THE PRESIDENT HAS DECLARED H1N1 – "SWINE FLU" – TO BE A NATIONAL EMERGENCY – GETTING THE FACTS IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER. DO YOU KNOW HOW TO TELL WHAT’S JUST A COLD…AND WHAT IS ACTUALLY SWINE FLU? READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW – AND PASS ON THE DETAILS TO YOUR FRIENDS AND COWORKERS.

Forecast for the Week

Another record sized round of Treasury auctions are on tap this week – and the massive amounts of supply that continue to flood the market can cause home loan rates to move higher, if there is ultimately not enough demand to sop up all the supply. Additionally, there are several economic reports which could be market movers. Tuesday brings both the Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Reports, the latter of which gives us an update on consumer and business consumption and buying behavior via data on items that are non-disposable, such as cars, furniture, appliances, games, cameras, business equipment, etc.

On Wednesday, there will be more news on the housing front with the New Home Sales Report, while Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Thursday also brings a read on the economy with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity. And the week could end with a bang, as Friday brings the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, found within the Personal Income Report.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds held their ground for most of the week but ultimately were unable to remain above a key technical support level. I’ll be watching closely to see what happens in the week ahead – and as always, reach out to me if you or others in your network need more information or questions answered…I’m here to help.

The Mortgage Market View…

H1N1: Information is the Best Defense!

Despite predictions from researchers at Purdue University that the H1N1 outbreak will peak this week, the reality is that it won’t be going away any time soon. Let’s not forget that the news is filled with shortages of the vaccine, as the number of H1N1 cases continues to surge across the country. And federal officials have warned that a second, larger outbreak could occur in early January.

The reality is that the best way to stop the spread of H1N1 is to know the symptoms and to take steps to protect yourself-and others-from it. The following information can help.

What are the symptoms of H1N1… and how are they different from the common cold?

If you think you have the H1N1 flu, you should take a few common-sense steps to protect your friends, family members, and coworkers. For instance, if you feel sick, stay home until you feel better and have gone at least 24 hours without relying on medicine to break your fever.

In addition, wash your hands, linens, dishes, and so on thoroughly. And cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze–and then throw the tissue away immediately. Finally, if you have to share a small space with other people, consider wearing a facemask to help make sure you don’t spread the flu to the people around you.

Follow these steps and monitor your symptoms to help stop the spread of H1N1…and remain happy and healthy!

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 26 – October 30

Last Week in Review

"LISTEN TO WHAT THE MAN SAID." And those aren’t just the words from Paul McCartney’s hit song of the same title…they’re also words of advice for anyone who’s considering buying a home or refinancing. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that as the economy heals, the Fed will be very vigilant to protect against inflation. While inflation is not a problem at present…it will most certainly become a problem down the road. So why does this matter if you are considering purchasing or refinancing? Because inflation is the arch-enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, and just the knowledge of it coming has been causing both Bonds and home loan rates to worsen in recent days. Along with the fear of inflation, the Fed’s purchasing program of Mortgage Backed Securities is already slowing down, with the end of their buying in sight – and the reduced demand for these Bonds is also driving home loan rates higher.

Bottom line: home loan rates are already on the rise, and we won’t likely see these low historic levels again.

Interest rates are still very near historic lows – George Washington couldn’t have gotten a better interest rate – and the opportunity these low rates present is huge for homebuyers or people looking to refinance. If we haven’t talked recently about your own home loan situation – or if you have a friend, family member, neighbor or coworker who needs advice – please call or send me an email. There’s no time to waste.

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On the topic of inflation – Gold has been on a tear higher of late, reaching a record high of $1048 an ounce. Remember that Gold is seen as a "safe harbor" or hedge against a falling Dollar and inflation – as Gold is not likely to lose much value in periods of rising prices. Again, fears of future inflation are pervasive, particularly in light of the massive economic stimulus that has been injected into the US economy…and inflation will drive home loan rates higher. The latest spike in Gold is more likely attributable to the Dollar’s recent decline, but both factors are somewhat at play.

Also last week, the Initial Jobless Claims Report came in better than expected. According to the report, 521,000 new applications for unemployment benefits were received. That number was lower than the 540,000 that were expected, and marked the fewest number of new claims since the first week in January. However, that good news must be tempered by a look at the big picture…the reality is that despite a better-than-expected number, more than half a million people per week are still applying for new unemployment benefits. That’s a sign that the labor market is still very weak. In fact, just last week former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan also commented that he sees unemployment rising beyond 10%.

IN LIGHT OF THE ONGOING WEAK LABOR MARKET, NOW MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO MAKE SURE YOU’RE DOING EVERYTHING YOU CAN TO BE AS PROFICIENT – AND EFFICIENT – AT YOUR JOB AS POSSIBLE. TAKE A LOOK AT THIE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW ARTICLE BELOW FOR HELPFUL INFORMATION ABOUT A BETTER WAY TO EVALUATE YOURSELF AND MAKE IMPROVEMENTS WHERE NECESSARY.

Forecast for the Week

Despite the Bond market being closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day, the Stock market will be open, and the week ahead has plenty of market-moving economic reports on tap.

On Wednesday, the Retail Sales Report will be released. This is the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns, so the markets will be watching to see if it comes in near expectations. Thursday brings us inflation news when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is reported. After Bernanke’s comment last week about the Fed protecting against inflation, the markets will be watching this report closely.

On Friday, the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported. This survey is conducted by the University of Michigan and measures consumer attitudes regarding present and future economic conditions. The index rose at the end of September, so the markets will be watching to see if that boost in confidence continued into this month’s preliminary report.

In addition to the important economic reports described above, industry experts and traders will be paying close attention to the release of the Meeting Minutes from the Fed’s most recent Open Market Committee meeting. Once again, any talks about future inflation could move the markets – particularly after Bernanke’s comments last week.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see from the chart below, Mortgage Bonds were unable to close above a tough technical ceiling of resistance last week and were ultimately pushed lower, causing home loan rates to rise.

The Mortgage Market View…

Know Thyself: Here’s An Easy Way To Get Constructive Feedback That May Save Your Job In These Tough Times

By Marty Nemko, Contributing Columnist, Kiplinger.com

For years, I’ve been pushing my clients to get a 360-degree evaluation — that is, asking their boss, co-workers and supervisees for anonymous feedback on their work. I’ve also suggested using a 360-degree evaluation as a fast track to personal growth, getting feedback from friends, relatives and romantic partner(s).

But to be candid, few of my clients have responded to my exhortations and — hypocrisy alert — neither had I.

An easy evaluation

Because I want to practice what I preach and because — especially as I get older — I want to do everything I can to avoid becoming stagnant, I decided to get a 360-degree evaluation.

A new Web site, Checkster.com, makes it easy to get anonymous, work-related feedback. I did a five-minute self-evaluation at the site and then entered the e-mail addresses of eight people from whom I wanted feedback (you can choose from three to eight). They included my six most recent career-coaching clients, plus my editors at Kiplinger.com and U.S. News & World Report.

Checkster.com sent each person an e-mail inviting him or her to give me feedback anonymously, using the five-minute questionnaire. They were given a week to reply.

Five of my six clients responded; neither of my bosses did. Hmmph. (Once three or more people responded, I was notified of who did and didn’t respond but was not told which questionnaire corresponded to which person.)

What I learned

My evaluations confirmed a number of positive aspects about me, which I’ll refrain from recounting to prevent suspicious readers from thinking that I devised this column as an opportunity to toot my own horn. On the negative side, I got a few useful nuggets:

• Two of my clients said they wished I were more available between sessions. Now that they mention it, I’m guessing that some of my other clients feel that way, too. So from now on, I will more regularly invite my clients to send me e-mail about their progress and any stumbling blocks. I’ll invite my needier clients to e-mail me every day with a rating of their progress.
• One of my clients wrote, "Because of his enthusiasm/energy, at times I felt that Marty was not fully in tune with someone who may just work more slowly, calmly." Although feedback from a single source should be taken with a grain of salt, that comment rings true. So I will redouble my efforts to modulate my energy level to accommodate my clients’ natural style.
• Another client wrote, "Marty cannot solve all clients’ problems, even if they are career-related: Therapy and career counseling are different."

I’m not sure I’ll act much on the last one. I know that I can’t solve all my clients’ psychological problems, and perhaps I should consider referring a few more to therapy. But too often I’ve seen therapy actually make clients worse. Yes, therapy patients may gain insight into the causes of their problems, but their life is often no better for it.

Yet frequently, in just a few minutes, I’m able to help a client identify irrational beliefs and even the childhood roots of those beliefs that have kept the client stuck. Clients are then able to move forward and implement their action plan.

How to react

The way I responded to the last client’s feedback illustrates an important principle. Some people feel the need to act on all feedback, while others reflexively reject all criticism. The sweet spot is to consider feedback and then accept or reject it on its merits.

I understand that you may still be reluctant to do a 360-degree evaluation. You could get bad news or criticism in a tough-to-improve-on area — for example, being told you’re "too intense" or you often "don’t get it."

But it’s worth the risk. A 360-degree evaluation is arguably the most potent way to become a better professional and usually a better person. And, especially in this lousy economy, it could even save your job. (See A Career Survival Kit for more tips.)

Still unwilling? Here’s a second-best solution: Do a self-SWOT. Write down your strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Now what, if anything, do you want to do differently? More of? Less of?

Marty Nemko is a career coach and author of Cool Careers for Dummies. Reprinted with permission. All Contents © 2009 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 12 – October 16

Last Week in Review

"WORK, WORK, WORK…IT’S A LABOR OF LOVE." The words to Sammy Kershaw’s country song sound pretty good right now to a number of Americans…much better, in fact, than the recent employment numbers do.

Last week, the Labor Department’s Jobs Report didn’t show much love for US workers. As you can see in the chart below, the Labor Department reported 263,000 jobs lost in September, which was quite a bit worse than expectations. Compounding the bad news was an up-tick in the unemployment rate to 9.8% as well as downward revisions to prior Jobs Reports, showing an additional 13,000 jobs lost in July and August.

Also within the Jobs Report were declines in the Average Workweek and in Average Hourly Earnings, both of which came in below expectations. The shortening of the Average Workweek may be telling us that the amount of people forced to accept part time work is growing. The decline in the Average Hourly Earnings underscores the weakness in the labor market, as it indicates that companies have no pressure to raise wages…particularly with unemployment near 10%. An improvement in Hourly Earnings will likely give us the first sign of labor recovery, so this will be important to watch in upcoming Jobs Reports.

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Chart: Jobs Report for September

Personal Spending was also reported last week, indicating that spending rose in August at its fastest monthly pace in almost 8 years! And while the news appears to be good for the economy, we have to take it with a grain of salt, since a large part of that spending was the result of the "Cash for Clunkers" vehicle purchasing incentive program, which is no longer in effect.

Finally, the housing industry received some good news last week, as Pending Home Sales were up significantly at 6.4%, which was far above expectations. Some of the increase is likely due to folks working fast to take advantage of the $8,000 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which is currently set to expire on November 30th…and be sure to ask me about this, if you or any of your friends, family members, neighbors or coworkers could benefit from this great incentive. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index also came out last week with news that home prices fell less than expected. The report, which looks at the 20 largest cities, also showed that only 2 cities (Las Vegas and Seattle) experienced price declines when compared to the previous month. Overall, the numbers appear to indicate that the worst of the housing price declines may be behind us.

SPEAKING OF THE HOME, IF YOU HAVE AN EXTRA ROOM THAT YOU’VE BEEN CONSIDERING TURNING INTO A HOME OFFICE, TAKE A LOOK AT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW ARTICLE BELOW. YOU’LL FIND TIPS TO MAKE SURE YOU GET THE MOST OUT OF YOUR SPACE AND CREATE AN OFFICE THAT’S COMFORTABLE AND EFFICIENT.

Forecast for the Week

There are only a few economic reports due out this week, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be an exciting week. The action kicks off with the ISM Services Index on Monday morning. This report is typically less of a market mover than the ISM Manufacturing Index that came out last week, but with so few reports due out this week, the markets may be watching it closely.

Thursday will bring another weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. This weekly report continues to be important to watch as the job market plays a key role in our economic recovery. In last week’s report, Initial Jobless Claims increased by 17,000 to 551,000-which was higher than the 535,000 expected. Such huge numbers underscore the weakness in the labor market.

Finally, on Friday the Balance of Trade for August will be reported. Expectations are that the trade deficit will be reported at -32.9 Billion. Remember, a negative balance of trade-or a trade deficit-occurs when imports surpass exports.

Despite the small number of economic reports, the markets may see some volatility as the Treasury Department auctions off longer-term maturities this week, which are competitive with Mortgage Backed Securities. With the Fed scaling back their purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities, there may be less support for Mortgage Bond prices, so this week’s auction could result in more of a wild ride than previous auctions.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. Last week, Stocks closed lower, and the Dow marked its worst week since mid-June. However, as you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds finished the week at levels not seen since May 21, pushing home loan rates to near historic lows.

The Mortgage Market View…

Creating the Perfect Home Office

These days, more and more people are working all or part of the time from home, making a home office a necessity. Here are some tips for creating the perfect home office.

Layout – There is no bigger mistake you can make than purchasing office furniture or equipment without knowing exactly where you’ll be placing it in the room. Before you buy any new furniture, make sure you measure and plot where each piece will go, and don’t forget to account for electrical and cable outlets.

Furniture – A desk that’s roughly 60-inches wide, 30-inches deep, and 29-inches high is not only conducive to work, but it’s highly functional in terms of storing the items you use regularly. Your chair should be comfortable, but its primary function should be to promote healthy posture. Good posture will facilitate strong mental focus and will help to alleviate back and neck pain.

Lighting – Don’t underestimate the importance of quality lighting. If you’re lucky enough to have a window in your office, this should serve as your primary light source during the day. Natural light is easy on the eyes and promotes physical energy as well as a good mood. It’s also free. Large lights like floor lamps and ceiling lights should have the ability to be dimmed. Also, make sure your desk lamp is equipped with a light bulb that’s easy on the eyes. These "soft" light bulbs can be found anywhere, from office supply stores to grocery stores.

Storage – Identifying the type of items you need to store, as well as the quantity, will help you to determine an appropriate course of action. Here are a few helpful hints.

• Closets are great for storage. Not only can they house filing cabinets, but they are also perfect for storing the items you don’t need to access on a regular basis. This helps to maximize the actual workspace of your office.
• Shelving is one of the most versatile options for storage. Shelves can be purchased cheaply and come in a variety of sizes. They are easily installed and take up zero floor space.
• Don’t forget about your garage. When it comes to older files or anything that is rarely accessed, a garage can provide ample storage space. Word to the wise, however, the garage can be a dirty place. Plan accordingly by storing paper items in boxes and wrapping equipment in protective plastic.
• Visit a store that’s dedicated to home organization. Nowadays it seems like nearly every mall has a store of this kind. You’d be surprised at some of the inexpensive, space-saving storage options available.

Wall Organizers – Dry erase boards, chalkboards, corkboards, and magnetic boards are fantastic tools for keeping clutter off your desk. They are inexpensive and available everywhere in a variety of sizes. There are even combination boards that provide countless options.

Cords – Never underestimate the importance of power strips as they provide the ability to plug multiple devices into one outlet. The better power strips also provide surge protection to the equipment that’s plugged into them. In addition, cord covers are a great way to not only hide cords but to keep them from becoming a tangled mess. They can be purchased quite cheaply at any electronics store.

Décor – Last but not least, once you’ve got all the necessities in, don’t overlook decor. Certificates, diplomas, awards, trophies, and pictures not only complement an office, but they also help to personalize it.

Follow these simple steps, and more organization, function, and focus could be right around the corner.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 05 – October 09

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 4th

This week brings us only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This means that the week will be left mostly up to the stock markets and other influences since there is a lack of factual data for bonds to trade on. In addition to the one report, we also have two relevant Treasury auctions that can also cause movement in rates if demand for them is particularly strong or weak.

The first relevant event of the week is Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction. This sale will give us an important measure of investor interest in longer-term U.S. debt, particularly from international buyers. If there is a strong demand in the sale, we should see the broader bond market rally and mortgage rates move lower. However, a lackluster interest in the sale would likely lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

The second important sale is Thursday’s 30-year Bond sale. It is not as impor tant to mortgage rates as Wednesday’s 10-year Note sale is, but it is important enough to influence trading and bond market sentiment. As with Wednesday’s sale, a strong demand would be good news for mortgage pricing while a weak interest may lead to upward revisions to rates Thursday afternoon.

The only factual economic data of the week will be posted Friday morning. August’s Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates. It is expected to show a $32.9 billion trade deficit.

Overall, I suspect this is going to be fairly quiet week for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially compared to last week. For the most part, I believe the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed auctions. The most important day of the week is likely W ednesday due to the 10-year Treasury Note sale, but any day of significant stock volatility may make that particular day the most eventful.

The bond market will be closed next Monday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday, but there will not be an early close in trading Friday. The only recognition of the holiday comes next Monday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

"BE WILLING TO MAKE DECISIONS." General George Patton. And that’s exactly what the Fed did last week at their regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But just what did they decide…and what do their decisions mean for home loan rates?

The Fed said they are going to ration out the remaining commitment of Mortgage Backed Security purchases through the first quarter of 2010. There will be no additional buying, but instead, a longer weaning off of the program. There was some speculation about the Fed increasing the amount of buying above the $1.25T committed to, and last week’s statement is the Fed’s nice way of saying "no." They will not be buying more in quantity, but what they will do is attempt to provide a smoother transition to normal market conditions.

It is a given that once the Fed ceases its purchases, that interest rates will climb significantly higher…most likely back above the 6% area. So instead of a hard transition with a large bump in rates, the Fed is attempting to allow rates to gradually rise. This means that waiting to purchase or refinance will very likely mean a higher interest rate.

Their decision also means that the Fed’s remaining purchases will all be lower in quantity, as the remaining allotment for purchases will be spread over a longer period of time – and additionally, will not necessarily be spread out as evenly as their past purchases – which could lead to more volatility for rates in the near term.

In other news, Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales were reported slightly less than expected, but both reports continue to show signs of an improving housing market. The inventory of unsold existing homes fell to its lowest inventory level since April 2007, while the inventory of unsold new homes dropped to its lowest level since January 2007. While some of the decline in new home inventory may be due to builders constructing fewer homes – these reports indicate that the housing market is indeed showing signs of life.

Remember, with home loan rates still low – but slated to increase with the Fed’s recent decision – as well as a juicy tax credit for First Time Home Buyers that is going to expire on November 30th, it makes sense to get off the fence if you’ve been considering a purchase or refinance. Or do you have a family member, neighbor, friend or coworker who might benefit from getting some good home loan advice? I’m always glad to get your referrals, so simply let me know who I might be able to help.

THE DECISION TO BUY A HOME IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FINANCIAL DECISIONS YOU CAN MAKE…AND OFFERS GREAT FINANCIAL BENEFITS AS WELL. WITH HOME LOAN RATES LOOKING TO MOVE HIGHER, CHECK OUT THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN MORE ABOUT WHY HOMEOWNERSHIP MAKES SENSE.

Forecast for the Week

There are several important economic reports in store for this week, the biggest likely being Friday’s Jobs Report for September. The Jobs Report for August showed a troublesome 216,000 jobs lost for the month, with prior months revised to show an additional 50,000 jobs lost. In addition, the last report showed that the Unemployment Rate for August jumped to the highest level in 26 years, at 9.7% from July’s 9.4%. This is more than double the rate of unemployment from just two years ago and significantly higher than the 5.9% average during the past 40 years. The Unemployment Rate portion of the Jobs Report is often seen as more reliable than the job loss numbers since it is an actual survey, where about 60,000 households are contacted – so this is a particularly important element of the report, as we watch to see signs of an improving economy.

Also this week, we have a read on Consumer Confidence coming on Tuesday, while Thursday brings the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, found within the Personal Income Report. Thursday will also bring another weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report, just ahead of the Labor Department’s big Jobs Report coming on Friday.

It will most certainly be a full week of news, particularly as the aforementioned tension in the Middle East continues to simmer. There is a meeting scheduled for this Thursday with representatives from six nations to discuss this situation further.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds were able to mount a late-week rally through a key "ceiling of resistance", and this move higher for Bonds caused home loan rates to improve. I’ll be watching closely to see if Bonds can hold their ground, and continue in this improving direction in the week ahead.

The Mortgage Market View…

Financial Benefits of Home Ownership

There are a number of personal and emotional reasons to buy a home. But there are also some strong financial reasons to make the investment. In addition to exceptional home affordability and near historic interest rates, here are some important financial benefits of owning a home:

Increased Net Worth: Few things have a greater impact on net worth than owning a home. In a comparison of renters versus homeowners, the Federal Reserve Board of Consumer Finance found that the average net worth of renters was just $4,000 compared to homeowners at $184,400.

A Big Tax Deduction: One of the largest tax deductions available is the amount of interest paid on a mortgage. In fact, a $150,000 home at a 5.50% interest rate can add up to approximately $8,000 in first year’s interest. This amounts to a significant savings – effectively reducing the amount of a homeowner’s monthly loan payment.

Long-Term Appreciation: Over the last few years, home prices have corrected and become more affordable. While that’s good news for potential buyers, it has overshadowed the long-term appreciation of a home’s value. The reality is, despite market ups and downs, real estate historically appreciates around 6% per year. Even if you calculate a modest appreciation of 3%, a home purchased today for $150,000 should grow in value to $364,000 over 30 years.

$8,000 Tax Credit: Don’t forget, the government is offering an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers – or for folks that haven’t owned a home during the past three years. However, the program is scheduled to end soon. In fact, the Internal Revenue Service recently reminded potential buyers that they must complete their first-time home purchases before December 1, 2009 to qualify for the special credit, which means the last day to close on a home and qualify for the credit is November 30, 2009.

If you’re considering purchasing a home or refinancing, this is an ideal time. Call or email me today to discuss your specific situation and how you can benefit from today’s market.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 28 – October 02

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Sep. 27th

This week brings us the release of six relevant economic reports for the bond market to digest. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates. I would not be surprised to see a relatively calm day as traders prepare for this week’s data, some of which is considered to be extremely important.

The first release of the week is September’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late Tuesday morning. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show an increase from last month’s reading, indicating that consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations than last month and more likely to make large purchases in the near future. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 57.0, up from August’s 54.1. If we see a larger than expected increase, the bond market should move lower and mortgage rates move higher Tuesday.

Wednesday’s sole report is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don’t see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of a 1.0% decline in GDP.

August’s Personal Income and Outlays will be released early Thursday morning. It gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. This is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is negative news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. It is expected to show a 0.1% rise in income and a 1.1% increase in spending due to auto sales.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for September late Thursday morning. This index gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. Analysts are expecting an increase from last month’s 52.9 reading. The 50.0 benchmark is extremely important because a reading above that level means more surveyed executives felt business improved than those who said it had worsened. This data is important not only because it measures manufacturer sentiment, but it is also very recent data. Some economic releases track data that are 30-60 days old, but the ISM index is only a few weeks old. If we get a smaller than expected reading, I expect to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates fall Thursday morning.

The Labor Department will post September’s Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

If this report gives us weaker than expected readings Friday, bond prices should move higher and we should see lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger than forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate at 9.8%, a decline in new payrolls of approximately 180,000 and a 0.2% increase in earnings.

The final report of the week comes late Fri day morning when the Commerce Department will post August’s Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates slightly if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but due to the importance of the Employment report I doubt this data will heavily influence the markets. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 0.5%.

Overall, it is likely going to be a very active week in the markets and mortgage rates. The most important day will be Friday due to the employment report being scheduled, but Tuesday’s and Thursday’s data can also fairly heavily influence mortgage rates. With important data being released each day of the week except tomorrow, I would recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/re financing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Sep. 20th

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports in addition to another FOMC meeting and two important Treasury auctions. None of the factual reports are considered to be highly important. In fact, most of the economic news is considered to be only moderately important. This should help limit the possibility of significant changes to mortgage rates most days this week.

Unlike many Mondays, there is relevant data being posted tomorrow. The Conference Board will release its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for August late tomorrow morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.7% rise, meaning that it is predicting a sizable increase in economic activity over the next several months. A larger than expected reading would be considered bad news for bonds and could lead to a minor increase in mortgage rates tomorrow.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Tuesday, but the first of this week’s two important Treasury sales will take place Wednesday and the Fed’s two-day FOMC meeting will adjourn Wednesday afternoon. The Treasury will sell 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes Thursday. If investor demand in these sales is strong, particularly from international buyers, the broader bond market should move higher pushing mortgage rates lower. But a lackluster interest from investors could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. The results of each sale will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction to the results will come during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.

The FOMC meeting will begin Tuesday and adjourn at 2:15 PM Wednesday. There is little possibility of seeing any type of change to key short-term interest rates. However, the post-meeting statement could very well lead to volatility during afternoon trading as investors dissect it in an effort to fi nd when the Fed’s next move may come. The wild card is how the markets react to the statement because the lack of a change to monetary policy will not affect the markets. If we see significant weakness in stocks, the bond market may benefit as a safe-haven from the volatility. This could lead to lower mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning.

August’s Existing Home Sales report will be released late Thursday morning. The National Association of Realtors posts this data, giving us an indication of housing sector strength by tracking home resales in the U.S. It is expected to show a moderate increase from July’s sales, however, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The remaining three reports will all be released Friday morning. August’s Durable Goods Orders will be posted early morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for an increase in orders of 0.3%. A smaller than expected increase could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop Friday. However, a larger than expected rise would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector and would likely help push mortgage rates higher.

The second report is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This is the revised reading for September. The preliminary reading that was released earlier this month revealed a 70.2 reading. Analysts are expecting to see a small upward revision, meaning consumer confidence was slightly higher than previously thought. A lower than expected reading would be good news for bonds and help improve mortgage rates Friday morning.

The final report of the week is August’s New Home Sales. It is expected to show that sales of newly constructed homes rose slightly in August. As with most of this week’s data, this report will likely not have a significant impact on mortgage rates unless its readings differ greatly from forecasts.

Overall, the single most important report of the week is Friday’s Durable Goods Orders, but the most important day will probably be Wednesday due to the FOMC adjournment and the 5-year Treasury Note auction. Thursday’s 7-year Note sale is actually a little more important for mortgage rates than Wednesday’s auction but the first of the two will give us an idea of what to expect from Thursday’s sale. I don’t believe any of this week’s data has the potential to move the markets or mortgage rates heavily. But, we may some change in rates day-to-day, with the most likely coming mid-week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was tak ing place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Last Week in Review

"I’M ON MY WAY…JUST SET ME FREE…HOME SWEET HOME." The lyrics from Mötley Crüe’s Home Sweet Home sound a lot like something the housing industry might have sang last week, after the Commerce Department reported that the number of Housing Starts in August came in better than expected.

As you can see in the chart below, Housing Starts have fallen significantly since June 2008, but in last week’s report, they broke free to come in at their highest level since last November. Building Permits were a bit lower than expectations, but the overall report suggests that while we’re not entirely out of the woods yet, the worst in the housing market may have passed and that the industry may be on its way to stabilizing.

———————–
Chart: Housing Starts in August

Inflation was also in the news last week. On Tuesday, the Producer Price Index came in more than double expectations, prompting fears of wholesale inflation. However, since wholesale inflation isn’t always passed on to consumers, the markets anxiously awaited the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is an important measurement of inflation because it actually measures the average prices paid by consumers for goods and services, which is where the real inflation concerns come in. According to last week’s report, CPI came in just slightly higher than expectations.

Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, and it is said that "rates are the boat that floats on the sea of inflation", meaning when inflation rises, home loan rates will move higher as well. With the recession appearing to be bottoming out and with an unprecedented amount of government spending over the past year, there are fears that inflation – and therefore home loan rates – may be on the rise soon. If you are in the market to purchase or refinance, this is an important aspect to keep an eye on. Call me if you want to discuss presently low rates, and how they might fit into your plans.

The $8,000 tax credit for First Time Home Buyers was also in the news again last week. White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs said that the administration is evaluating the program and the effect it has had on home sales and will soon make a recommendation to the President. Although there’s been talk and speculation regarding the expansion of this program, as of now, potential buyers must complete their first-time home purchases before December 1 to qualify for the special credit.

Overall, Bonds and home loan rates saw some nice gains early last week, but finished just slightly worse than they began, as Stocks closed at highs for 2009 and pulled some money away from Bonds. Whether Bonds can climb back up this week will depend not only on the economic reports due out, but also on how well the markets receive the incoming round of 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Note auctions.

SPEAKING OF THINGS THAT ARE DUE SOON, DID YOU REALIZE THE HOLIDAY SEASON IS JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AWAY? TAKE A LOOK AT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY VIEW ARTICLE BELOW TO FORM A PLAN NOW, AND MAKE SURE THIS HOLIDAY SEASON IS AS HAPPY FOR YOUR WALLET AS IT IS FOR YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS.

Forecast for the Week

This week is chock full of economic news for the market to digest. First, we’ll hear from the Fed with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement and interest rate decision to be released after their upcoming meeting ends on Wednesday. Although the Fed hasn’t made any policy changes as of late, the Fed’s statements are still closely watched by the markets for any comments or concerns on matters such as inflation.

Considering last week’s news that Housing Starts for August came in better than expected and at the highest level since last November, we’ll gain more insight on the health of the housing industry when reports on Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales for August are released on Thursday and Friday respectively.

Also on tap this Friday is the Durable Goods Orders report. Durable Goods Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report. However, the volatility and large revisions that are sometimes made to past reports make this a less-than-perfect indicator.

Finally, we’ll see the Consumer Sentiment Index for September this Friday. Although consumer sentiment does not correlate strongly with consumer spending, the markets will be watching to see if this month’s reading hits expectations of 70.0.

Mixed in with these reports will be another round of 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Note auctions. Recent auctions have been fairly well received and have helped support Bond prices, so I’ll be watching closely to see if this trend can continue this week, or if Bond prices and home loan rates will worsen in response to the enormous supply hitting the market.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds were pushed lower by technical resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average, as well as the announcement of this week’s record sized Treasury auction.

The Mortgage Market View…

Budgeting for the Holidays…It’s Never Too Early to Start

It’s hard to believe, but Thanksgiving is just two months away. And while that may seem like a lot of time, you’ll be diving into that turkey dinner sooner than you think…and right around the corner will come the Christmas holidays. That’s why now is the perfect time to start planning for your holiday budget. By formulating a plan now, you’ll achieve more than just the happiest of holidays. You’ll ensure that the New Year will begin without worries of too little cash flow or too much debt. Here’s how.

Learn from the Past

The best place to begin when it comes to planning for this year’s holiday spending is to examine what you did last year. Dig up the credit card receipts and checkbook registers, and add up how much money you spent. You’ll also want to take notes regarding where you spent it. Don’t forget to include money used to purchase gift wrapping supplies, cards, postage, food while shopping, entertainment costs, and special-occasion clothing.

Now that the numbers are in front of you, it’s time to form an opinion. How do you feel about last year’s spending? Did you spend a realistic and appropriate amount, or did you go overboard? Try to be objective. This analysis will serve as the backbone of your plan.

Look at the Present…Pun Intended

Financially speaking, how have you fared this year compared to last year? Be sure to look at any changes in income as well as expenses. If your finances haven’t changed and you’re happy with last year’s spending, then you’re starting off in very good shape. If your overall financial status has declined, or if you were less-than-pleased with last year’s performance, then you’ve got some work to do.

Begin by looking at the number of purchases you made a year ago. Which ones would you make again and which ones have you scratching your head? It may be time to reduce your gift-buying list or change the amount you spend on each purchase. The obvious way to accomplish this is to be less extravagant with your selections. A less obvious but often effective approach is to research your potential purchases. Sometimes you end up paying extra for the convenience of one-stop shopping, so look through the newspaper to find which stores are offering deals. Then look on the Internet to see if you can beat their prices by purchasing online. This practice will cut down on last-minute shopping which can be an expensive proposition.

Look Toward the Future

So, you’ve figured out how many purchases you need to make as well as which ones need scaling back in terms of price. Now it’s time to create a budget. Once again, there is no magic formula. Creating a budget and sticking to it requires two main things: common sense and commitment. Let’s take a closer look.

A budget should always be based on the money you have, not the money you can borrow. If you are still paying off charges from last year, then you need to avoid using credit cards to make gift purchases this year. The amount of money you decide to allocate toward holiday spending should be based solely on what you’ve saved or what you will save from now until the time you start shopping.

When drafting your budget, start by creating a list of recipients, along with columns for the gifts you intend to buy and the dollar amounts you expect to spend. As you make purchases, keep track of the results. If you overspend on one gift, it is imperative that you make it up somewhere else. Your diligence is one of the keys to staying within your budget.

It’s also important that you watch out for potential pitfalls, including impulse shopping. Getting into the spirit of the holidays is one thing, but spending frivolously based upon a last minute decision is something else. You’ve got a list, and your job is to stick to it!

One final thing that may need an adjustment is your overall philosophy. It’s easy to look at the budget you’ve created as a restriction. After all, it’s nothing more than a set of rules. The flip side is that these rules are there for your protection. Sticking to them will not only help your feel comfortable about your finances before and after the holidays, it will free you from the stress that comes from accumulated debt. When you look at it this way, a budget can be downright liberating. Give yourself the gift of a financially stress free holiday, by planning in advance.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 21 – September 25

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Sep. 6th

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data, but none of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic releases, we also have two Treasury auctions that may play a role in this week’s mortgage pricing. The markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the Labor Day holiday, meaning mortgage lenders will follow suit.

The first release of the week comes Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.

Also Wednesday is the 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by the 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.

July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted early Thursday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $27.4 billion, which would be a small increase from June’s $27.0 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s releases, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates regardless of its results.

The last report of the week will be posted by the University of Michigan. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 67.8 that would mean confidence rose from August’s final reading. That would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, this week looks like it will be much less active for mortgage rates than last week was. With the financial markets closed tomorrow, we only have four days of trading. There is no particular data that is important enough to label its day of release as the mo st important of the week. This may allow the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and therefore, impact mortgage rates this week. As long as the stock markets do not stage a sizable rally or sell-off this week, I believe we will only see minor changes to mortgage rates the next few days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Mortgage Commentary 2009

Labor Day

I hope you and your family enjoyed the Labor Day holiday. And, I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY.

Due to the holiday weekend, the next full issue will arrive on Monday, September 14. In the meantime, check out the special article below from Every Learner about the history of Labor Day and why we celebrate it today. This a great article that can be shared with your family, friends, and associates as we celebrate this unique holiday, so please feel free to forward this email on to them.

I am pleased to provide this timely article to you as well as weekly insights into the mortgage and housing industries through the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. If you feel that any of your clients, friends, family, or associates would benefit from keeping up to date on market and economic trends in this easy-to-read format, please let me know, and I will be more than happy to add them free of charge.

Best wishes to you this holiday weekend. And remember, if you need any assistance at this time, just give a call.

The Mortgage Market View…

LABOR’S DAYS PAST

America’s Labor Day may be summer’s last hurrah, but labor’s days past were no picnic. A few generations ago, American working men and women (and often children, too) struggled just to get weekends off–let alone a long one. A few generations ago, people died when labor struggled. Example: the Pullman railway strike of 1894.

"I Owe My Soul to the Company Store"

Just south of Chicago, the town of Pullman was literally owned by George M. Pullman, manufacturer of the Pullman sleeping car used by railroads. Company brochures painted the town as a workers’ paradise, "where all that is ugly and discordant and demoralizing is eliminated, and all that inspires to self-respect is generously provided."

In reality, the company town was just that, run by and for the company as a moneymaking venture. One worker said, "We are born in a Pullman house, fed from the Pullman shop, taught in the Pullman school, catechized in the Pullman church, and when we die we shall be buried in the Pullman cemetery and go to the Pullman hell."

"There Is Nothing to Arbitrate"

When depression struck America in 1893, Pullman slashed wages 25 percent, without reducing rents at company houses or prices at the company store. Some 5,000 workers and their families sank deep into the company’s debt.

Finally, in May 1894, the workers went on strike. Pullman closed the plant and rebuffed all requests for arbitration. "There is nothing to arbitrate," he said. Stymied, the union called for a boycott of Pullman cars. Beginning June 26, switchmen refused to attach Pullman cars to trains. When railway officials fired the men, trainmen everywhere walked off the job. Railroad traffic across the country ceased.

Railway officials turned to the federal government for help, and got it in spades. The U.S. attorney general, a former railway lawyer, convinced the federal courts to issue a sweeping injunction against all strike activity, arguing that the strikers had formed an illegal conspiracy in restraint of trade under the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, a law passed, ironically, to combat big business. On July 4, 1894, federal troops descended on Chicago to enforce the injunction.

Out of "Pullman Hell"

In the powder-keg atmosphere that followed, soldiers shot into crowds trying to stop trains, and mobs set hundreds of freight cars alight. The strike collapsed. More ominously for workers, though, companies learned to use injunctions from business-friendly courts as a weapon against labor. One injunction threatened to arrest anyone "inducing or attempting to induce.any person or persons to abandon the employment of…railway companies."

Yet even as the Pullman strike crumbled, the political winds began to shift. In fact, a federal commission called to investigate the incident blamed the government "for not adequately controlling monopoly and corporations, and for failing to reasonably protect the rights of labor." A new, Progressive era was born out of labor’s pains.

Eventually, victories would come: the 8-hour workday, the 5-day workweek, improved working conditions, child labor laws, collective bargaining rights–even a national Labor Day, approved by Congress the same year as the Pullman strike.

–By Michael Himick

This article was provided to you through collaboration with Every Learner. To learn more, play quizzes, and read additional articles, visit http://everylearner.com and get a one-month membership at no cost to you.

Reproduced with permission. Copyright c 2002-2009 Every Learner, Inc. All rights reserved.